Monday, April 21, 2008

Probability Model

Today I would like to discover the probabilities of many different things pertaining to the common man. There are a surprising range of issues with which the everyday person grapples, and it is often astounding to learn of the degree which economic tools and models can be used to make inferences about a person's potential actions. With this in mind, I have charted out the drinking habits of a young man a know by the name of Sean. Sean tells me that he drinks an average of 3.6 drinks every night in which he drinks more than one. (I have removed those nights as outliers, and not as drinking nights.) Sean also chooses to indulge in a game of beer pong 40% of the nights in which he drinks. Beer pong causes Sean to drink an average of 1.3 more drinks. Now, whether or not he plays beer pong or not, Sean drinks about 1 and a half drinks around his average. (This is a cleverly disguised standard deviation). Here comes the problem: Sean becomes drunk, passes out and has sex with a less-than-STD-free girl if he has 6 or more drinks. Therefore, what are his chances of doing this? Let's find out!

With much statistical acumen, Sean will get drunk about 14% of his drinking nights. Here comes a little more guessing. If Sean drinks twice a week (on average) for all six years of college (yeah, some people take more than four!), he will be drunk about 86 times in college, which translates to about 4% of all nights in college. This leaves Sean with 86 chances to get laid by some chick he will horribly regret in the morning. If you knew Sean, you would know that he gets laid about 20% of the time, so that's 17 girls. Pretty successful. Based on real scientific data, about 10% of women have some kind of STD. Therefore, Sean will come into intimate contact with around 1 or 2 STDs. Ouch. As Sean reaches his graduation date, he will not only have a degree, but a severe case of gonorrhea! I just learned that you can catch gonorrhea of the throat. No amount of vomiting into my own mouth will allow me to forget that shit. Well, good night and good luck. (You're gonna need it!)

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